South Sudan's stalled peace process: security arrangements in need of adjustment

Abstract

Before considering cantonment, it is of utmost importance to reach widespread agreement in society and parliament on political principles guiding the mid-term transformation of the country’s security sector (e.g. ethnic inclusion, militia integration and professionalization) as these will guide the reorganization and demobilization of armed forces. Since many opposition groups are not represented in the current peace process, the cantonment of forces that are party to the peace agreement would be of limited effect as main conflict drivers are left out. On the contrary, the process can even deepen exclusion. To avoid this, the High-Level Revitalization Forum needs to generate inclusive dialogue with the opposition movements - even those that are non-signatories to the ARCSS. Force assembly applies to the opposition as much as to the SPLA-In Government. The ongoing debate in Juba about cantonment, however, only addresses the assembly of SPLA-In Opposition. The transitional government needs to send a strong signal that it is serious about force assembly by moving its troops back to the barracks. From an economic perspective, resource-intensive, long-term programmes linked to cantonment are not feasible. These may also have adverse consequences from a peace perspective as they encourage new armed groups to join the fighting.