Ten Things to Watch in Africa in 2019

Abstract

While socio-economic development slowly progresses and democratic processes do seem to be taking root in some African countries, on balance many challenges still remain in 2019. Relations on the continent as well as with Europe and other world regions also give a mixed impression. We present a selective analysis of "10 things to watch" in Africa in 2019. Democratisation: This is a year of crucial elections in many countries, including in important ones like Nigeria (February) and South Africa (April). Democratisation will gain momentum in some countries, but the democratic aspirations of Africans will be confronted with shrinking space for civil society and other such tactics by authoritarian leaders. Ethiopia and Togo may represent two differing trajectories in this regard. Peace and security: Challenges for peace and security connect to elite power struggles, conflicts between identity groups, and jihadism. Outcomes of elections may increase risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Identity and elite conflicts mix in Cameroon and South Sudan; in the latter case, prospects for the most recent peace deal are uncertain. Nigeria and other hotspots of jihadism in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa will require multilateral action, which will depend on reforming the African Union and subregional organisations as well as boosting peacekeeping. Socio-economic development: Some signs point to momentum in developing an African free trade zone; a stronger voice in the post-Cotonou process will also help. A simmering threat for African economies is new debt crises, especially for those that struck deals with China. Our selective 10 things to watch in 2019 suggest a cautiously optimistic but still mixed picture regarding Africa's trajectories. Africans and external actors such as the European Union and Germany should ensure clean elections. Where reform-oriented actors are identifiable, they need firm support. In cases like Cameroon, pre-emptive action seems necessary. Reform of the African Union and of other regional organisations are, alongside peacekeeping, causes worth supporting. Free trade zones and more equal trade with Africa is an important additional measure, supplemented by donor-based initiatives. Germany's membership in the United Nations Security Council will matter, but with limited effect.