Dynamic material flow analysis of critical metals embodied in thin-film photovoltaic cells

Abstract

Photovoltaic cells are a contributor to the global energy mix of growing importance. Among the different photovoltaic technologies, thin-film technologies such as copper-indium-gallium-(di)selenide (CIGS) or cadmium-telluride (CdTe) have shown a significant growth in market share caused among other things by their reduced manufacturing costs and increased versatility. These cells require materials like indium, gallium, cadmium and tellurium that have been identified to be critical in terms of their economic importance and supply risks in various studies. Also, significant stocks of these materials will develop in the anthroposphere and secondary flows in a significant scale will arise at some point in the future. In this article material stocks and flows – including secondary flows and material demands- of indium, gallium, cadmium, and tellurium resulting from global deployment of photovoltaic cells up to 2050 have been analyzed considering three different scenarios regarding the future development. Based on this, potential future material shortages are discussed.