Dealing With China in the South China Sea: Duterte Changing Course

Abstract

In 2013 the Philip­pines brought a case before the Per­manent Court of Arbi­tration (PCA) against China over ter­ritorial sove­reignty and mari­time rights in the South China Sea. Ad­mitted­ly, they were suc­ces­sful before the court, but in the after­math the ten­sions bet­ween both parties iten­si­fied drama­ti­cally - and no con­flict re­so­lution was in sight. Philip­pine President Duterte, in­au­gu­rated in 2016, as­sumed a new stance. He offered to ignore the court ruling for the time being, in­ten­si­fied eco­nomic re­lations and re-es­tab­lished bi­lateral com­muni­cation chan­nels. The author pre­sents two les­sons learned in deal­ing with China: first, that ap­plying too much pres­sure through legal in­stru­ments may in­crease China's re­sis­tance and, second, that China's be­havior can be in­fluenced through strat­egies that re­spond po­sitively to the country's core needs and pre­di­ca­ments.