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%T The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems
%A Grinin, Leonid
%A Grinin, Anton
%P 216
%D 2016
%I Uchitel Publishing House
%@ 978-5-7057-4877-8
%> https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-57569-8
%X The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development
of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines
the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the
end of the twenty-first century.
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another?
One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among
all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production
revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic
one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable
explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process.
The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and
demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming
technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second
half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the
next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production
revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its
development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and
show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this
revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic
Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative
branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies
which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological
paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive
technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine
and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).
%C Moscow
%G en
%9 Monographie
%W GESIS - http://www.gesis.org
%~ SSOAR - http://www.ssoar.info