Factori determinanţi ai opţiunilor electorale din România în 2004: o analiză la nivel agregat

Abstract

The purpose of this research paper is to assess the causes of the territorial distribution of the votes in Romanian local elections held in 2004. Using an aggregate level statistical analysis, I explore three competing theories. The territorial distribution of votes might be first function of geographical localization, people from Transylvania voting against the ruling party and largely favoring the opposition. Counties supporting the opposition are generally the most developed, least rural and wealthiest counties, but in the same time a number of these counties are located in Transylvania. All the same, people may support effective and accountable politicians in office and sanction the others. Testing the three hypotheses, I find that the economic voting has no empirical evidence. The only significant factor unraveled is the counties' location in Transylvania. This factor continues to be significant even when the relationships are controlled with different local development measures, unraveling a regional voting pattern in Romania.