Catalonia's Separatist Swell

Abstract

Artur Mas, the regional leader of Catalonia, signed a decree on September 27 calling for a non-binding consultation on independence to be held on November 9 to determine the region's fate. Recent polls indicate that half of Catalans would vote to break away from Spain, while the other half would vote to stay on current or more autonomous terms. In the likely scenario that the Spanish Constitutional Court suspends the decree on the grounds that it is illegal, Mas is expected to call off the November 9 consultation. If he backs down on the consultation, however, pressure will rise in Catalonia for early regional elections. His party, Convergència i Unió, will likely lose votes in such elections to the more radically pro-independence party, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). If ERC makes big gains, Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, may soon face a new partner in Barcelona - one who is less willing to negotiate. Madrid would be wise to offer Barcelona far more than just fiscal concessions.