Nischentransfer und Protoindustrie auf dem Prüfstand der statistischen Analyse: Determinanten kurzfristiger Heiratsschwankungen im Altkreis Tecklenburg, 1750-1870

Abstract

The purpose of the present study was to analyse the impact of short-term fluctuations of economic variables (grain-prices and non-infant-deaths) on marriages in the 18 parishes of the Prussian Kreis Tecklenburg between 1850 and 1870. Current statistical methods based on combined time series and cross sectional analysis were chosen for this study and used in combination with different context variables. Contrary to the classical hypothesis of the protoindustrialization-concept, no evidence for a specific effect of protoindustry on marriage fluctuations has been identified. However fluctuations in grain-prices had a significant effect on nuptiality. This effect changed its direction from the 18th to the 19th century, and it depended on the quality of the agriculturally productive land, on the ratio of landowners in the population, and on the enclosures of the local commons. The last two context variables influenced the effect of non-infant-deaths on marriage fluctuation, too. In particular, a positive correlation between the landowner ratio and the relevance of a niche transfer within the family system was found.