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https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654
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Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations
[journal article]
Abstract "We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed t... view more
"We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant." (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
climate change; climate protection; climate policy; international agreement; success-failure; expert survey; prognosis; negotiation; simulation; decision making
Classification
Special areas of Departmental Policy
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Document language
English
Publication Year
2016
Page/Pages
p. 172-187
Journal
Politics and Governance, 4 (2016) 3
Issue topic
Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement
ISSN
2183-2463
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution