Las encuestas electorales en México: alcances y límites

Abstract

There is a critical, based on simplifications and myths, about the accuracy of published electoral polls in Mexico, which has fueled an attitude barely self-criticism and self-indulgent in the professional guild. This polarization does not make clear the real scope and limits which may be shown as available evidence in these studies: it is clear that the surveys have warned properly about the competition's formats in most cases, but it is also clear that there are problems about the accuracy, whose solution is not at all simple and whose diagnosis and care which concerns the same pollsters that social analysts. It is true that for many years the polls could provide certainty to the electoral process and today this is not always the case, but it's true that it doesn't cease to be present phenomena simulation preferences for citizenship. This approach responds to several factors that are beyond the scope of public opinion polls and pointing to issues of political and cultural nature. (author's abstract)