Elecciones federales 2015: fragmentación sin realineamiento

Abstract

After the federal elections held in 2015, the highlight was the relative lack of participation in the vote by the major parties and fragmentation of the vote, emerging analytical categories such as "middle parties". Of course, there are indicators of this phenomenon (so-called counters of the number of system components). For purposes of this discussion we will choose two, for reasons to be explained. But this fragmentation of the national vote does not necessarily mean a realignment of political and electoral trends of Mexican citizenship, but decisions support different options within the same side of the ideological spectrum. The same indices used to analyze the fragmentation may serve for known the sense and magnitude of the change in the preferences grouped by political and ideological trend. The aim of this paper is to recognize the scope of processes of fragmentation and realignment of voting at national level and for aggregates by entity and glimpse the meaning that this eminently empirical analysis can shed to construct possible scenarios for the next federal elections in Mexico.