The accuracy of pre-election polling of German general elections

Schnell, Rainer; Noack, Marcel

[journal article]

dc.contributor.author	Schnell, Rainer	de
dc.contributor.author	Noack, Marcel	de
dc.date.accessioned	2014-09-16T10:18:40Z
dc.date.available	2014-09-16T10:18:40Z
dc.date.issued	2014	de
dc.identifier.issn	2190-4936	de
dc.identifier.uri	http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/39802
dc.description.abstract	"Pre-election polls are the most prominent type of surveys. As with any other survey, estimates are only of interest if they do not deviate significantly from the true state of nature. Even though pre-election polls in Germany as well as in other countries repeatedly show noticeably inaccurate results, their failure appears to be quickly forgotten. No comparison considering all available German data on actual election results and the confidence intervals based on pre-election polls has been published. In the study reported here only 69% of confidence intervals covered the election result, whereas statistically 95% would have to be expected. German pre-election polls even just a month ahead are therefore much less accurate than most introductory statistical textbooks would suggest." (author's abstract)	en
dc.language	en	de
dc.subject.ddc	Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie	de
dc.subject.ddc	Social sciences, sociology, anthropology	en
dc.subject.ddc	Politikwissenschaft	de
dc.subject.ddc	Political science	en
dc.subject.other	Pre-Election-Polls; empirical coverage; confidence intervals for binomial data; design effects; Sonntagsfrage
dc.title	The accuracy of pre-election polling of German general elections	de
dc.description.review	begutachtet (peer reviewed)	de
dc.description.review	peer reviewed	en
dc.source.journal	Methods, data, analyses : a journal for quantitative methods and survey methodology (mda)
dc.source.volume	8	de
dc.publisher.country	DEU
dc.source.issue	1	de
dc.subject.classoz	Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften	de
dc.subject.classoz	Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture	en
dc.subject.classoz	Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods	en
dc.subject.classoz	politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Wahlforschung	de
dc.subject.thesoz	election research	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Prognose	de
dc.subject.thesoz	prognosis	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Wahlverhalten	de
dc.subject.thesoz	voting behavior	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Schätzung	de
dc.subject.thesoz	estimation	en
dc.subject.thesoz	öffentliche Meinung	de
dc.subject.thesoz	public opinion	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Umfrageforschung	de
dc.subject.thesoz	survey research	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Stichprobenfehler	de
dc.subject.thesoz	sampling error	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Bundestagswahl	de
dc.subject.thesoz	election to the Bundestag	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Bundesrepublik Deutschland	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Federal Republic of Germany	en
dc.rights.licence	Creative Commons - Namensnennung	de
dc.rights.licence	Creative Commons - Attribution	en
ssoar.contributor.institution	GESIS	de
internal.status	formal und inhaltlich fertig erschlossen	de
internal.identifier.thesoz	10054727
internal.identifier.thesoz	10036432
internal.identifier.thesoz	10061173
internal.identifier.thesoz	10057146
internal.identifier.thesoz	10052047
internal.identifier.thesoz	10040714
internal.identifier.thesoz	10059347
internal.identifier.thesoz	10040137
internal.identifier.thesoz	10037571
dc.type.stock	article	de
dc.type.document	Zeitschriftenartikel	de
dc.type.document	journal article	en
dc.source.pageinfo	5-24	de
internal.identifier.classoz	10504
internal.identifier.classoz	10105
internal.identifier.journal	614
internal.identifier.document	32
internal.identifier.ddc	300
internal.identifier.ddc	320
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.12758/mda.2014.001	de
dc.description.pubstatus	Veröffentlichungsversion	de
dc.description.pubstatus	Published Version	en
internal.identifier.licence	1
internal.identifier.pubstatus	1
internal.identifier.review	1
internal.check.abstractlanguageharmonizer	CERTAIN

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Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften
Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture

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