Internal Memory Divided: Conspiratorial Thinking, Ideological and Historical Cleavages in Croatia ; Lessons for Europe

Abstract

This paper explores the main cleavages of the Croatian body politic, their interrelation and consequences for political behavior and collective identities through the two nationally representative surveys conducted in 2007 and 2012 in time of parliamentary elections. The results show significant relationship between recent political cleavages, expressed through conspiracy theories, and the one from the Second World War. Analyzed conspiratorial interpretations, as well as historical legacy of military affiliation of ancestors in the Second World War are substantial predictors of party preferences. But, predictive power of these interpretations varies due to the level and issues of party competition in these two elections. Furthermore, different type conspiracy theories promote different political values, goals and identities and express wider political antagonism between nationalism and democratization. Also, analyzed conspiracy theories are highly correlated to the perception of “simulated democracy”, which is the common problem of newly established democracies, as well as the symptom of more global political crisis.