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Koalitionssignale und ihre Wirkungen auf Wahlentscheidungen

Coalition signals and their impact on voting behaviour
[working paper]

Bytzek, Evelyn
Gschwend, Thomas
Huber, Sascha
Linhart, Eric
Meffert, Michael F.

Abstract

"Im deutschen Fünf-Parteien-System nimmt die Zahl der möglichen Koalitionen zu und Koalitionssignale gewinnen daher eine zunehmende Bedeutung für das Entscheidungsverhalten der Wähler. Um individuelle Wahlentscheidungen angemessen zu analysieren, müssen Koalitionssignale folglich bei der Modellierun... view more

"Im deutschen Fünf-Parteien-System nimmt die Zahl der möglichen Koalitionen zu und Koalitionssignale gewinnen daher eine zunehmende Bedeutung für das Entscheidungsverhalten der Wähler. Um individuelle Wahlentscheidungen angemessen zu analysieren, müssen Koalitionssignale folglich bei der Modellierung des Wählerkalküls mit einbezogen werden. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht vor diesem Hintergrund die Bedeutung von Koalitionssignalen für das Wahlverhalten. Anhand von Analysen verschiedener Datensätze der German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) wird für die Bundestagswahl 2009 gezeigt, dass Koalitionssignale zu Veränderungen der Wahlabsicht führen. Aufgrund der komplexen Koalitionssituation führen solche Wahlentscheidungen allerdings nicht immer zu einer Maximierung des Erwartungsnutzens, Wähler können vielmehr durch Koalitionssignale auch in die Irre geführt werden." (Autorenreferat)... view less


"The number of possible coalitions in the German five-party system is rising. Coalition signals become consequently more important for the decision-making process of voters. In order to model individual vote choices adequately, the impact of coalition signals must therefore be taken into account. Ta... view more

"The number of possible coalitions in the German five-party system is rising. Coalition signals become consequently more important for the decision-making process of voters. In order to model individual vote choices adequately, the impact of coalition signals must therefore be taken into account. Taking the case of the 2009 federal election, we provide evidence for these assumptions using several data sources of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). We show that coalition signals can change individual vote intentions. Due to the increasing complexity of coalition formation, such behavior does not always maximize voters’expected utility. Instead, coalition signals may lead voters astray." (author's abstract)... view less

Keywords
voting behavior; preference; election to the Bundestag; decision; coalition; coalition formation; election research; multi-party system

Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture

Method
empirical

Document language
German

Publication Year
2011

City
Mannheim

Page/Pages
37 p.

Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications

Data providerThis metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne


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