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Are there Political Budget Cycles in the Euro Area?
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract
This article examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivari ate model for 1999–2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that, since the start of the Stability and Growth Pact, fiscal policy-makers in the euro area have pu... mehr
This article examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivari ate model for 1999–2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that, since the start of the Stability and Growth Pact, fiscal policy-makers in the euro area have pursued expansionary policies before elections. In an election year – but not in the year prior to the election – the budget deficit increases. This result is in line with third-generation PBC models, which are based on moral hazard. We also find a significant but small partisan effect on fiscal policy outcomes.... weniger
Klassifikation
Wirtschaftspolitik
Öffentliche Finanzen und Finanzwissenschaft
Freie Schlagwörter
fiscal policy; political budget cycle; Stability and Growth Pact;
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2006
Seitenangabe
S. 191-211
Zeitschriftentitel
European Union Politics, 7 (2006) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116506063706
Status
Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)