Climate change impact on Sub-Saharan Africa? An overview and analysis of scenarios and models

Abstract

"Significant climate change is expected over the 21st century; it will affect ecosystems and access to natural resources such as fertile land and water. Regions with low adaptive capacity due to poverty, lack of infrastructure, services, and appropriate governance will be most severely affected. Sub-Saharan Africa is, due to its low economic development and the diversity of local conditions, a region that needs special attention in developing adaptation strategies. Climate impacts and the adaptive capacity of societies determine their vulnerability to climate change. The extent of climate change and spatial patterns of impacts are, however, highly uncertain. This report supplies background knowledge on climate change in sub- Saharan Africa, including uncertainties and basic assumptions of climate change projections. Impact studies are only roughly summarized here, as a systematic evaluation of the wealth of specific case studies available would by far exceed the scope of this report." (author's abstract)