Building long-term scenarios for development: The methodological state of the art with an application to foreign direct investment in Africa

Abstract

"This study provides an introduction to scenario analysis as a tool for development policy planning. The study is divided into three parts. The first part of the study outlines the central characteristics of scenario analysis methods, distinguishes scenario analysis from other research approaches, and presents a general guide for building scenarios. Illustrations of applications of scenario analysis methods in fields related to global development complement the methodological discussions in this part of the study. A second part of the study develops an original illustration of how scenario methods can be applied to examine development policy issues byfocusing on the question of how foreign direct investment flows could change the African development landscape toward the year 2030. This chapter culminates with the presentation of four fictional narratives charting how investment patterns and development outcomes could unfoldover the next two decades.The third and final chapter of the study outlines several considerations that policymakers potentially interested in using scenario methods as a supplement to their existing planning tools should make in evaluating whether the application of these methods within their organizations is desirable." (excerpt)