The impact of labour market integration on fertility decisions: a comparison of Germany and the UK

Abstract

"The aim of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis of a causal effect of individual labour-market-security and -integration on fertility by looking at the timing of first birth decisions after leaving the educational system. The analysis focuses on two major research questions: First, how is the timing of first parenthood related to previous labour market performance? Second, can we identify differences in first birth risks depending on individual labour market performance? In other words, to what extent do successfully integrated individuals differ with respect to their fertility decisions from those who are poorly integrated (as indicated by discontinuous or precarious employment patterns)? Integral to the analysis is a cross-national comparison of the relevance of institutional settings and their impact on family formation. In this context the editor focuses on the continental conservative German system and the liberal welfare state of the UK. He conceptualizes the initial transition to parenthood as the result of a rational as well as biographical planning process. The empirical investigation of the length of time up to first birth is based on an event history analysis, applying a piecewise constant exponential model to data from the SOEP and the BHPS. Results show the well known patterns of a still widely traditional division of labour between men and women on one hand side and extensive antagonisms of occupational and familial role. The cross-national comparison underlines the picture that this situation is especially virulent in Germany. In the case of German men with weak labour market integration he finds clear evidence of reduced probabilities of first birth - which is most likely due to limited breadwinner qualities. A reduced first birth risk also comes to the fore for women in Germany and the UK who show levels of extensive labour market integration (as indicated by a high amount of doing overtime work, e.g.). Yet an incomplete labour market integration of German women (as indicated by part time employment) also goes hand in hand with a reduced first birth risk. Among British women the editor cannot identify any clear fertility effects, related to initial labour market integration. This may be due to the fact that instable patterns of labour market entry are much more common in the UK and thus do not invoke any unsettling effect on fertility decisions." (author's abstract)