The long-run cost of job loss as measured by consumption changes

Abstract

We consider the measurement of the cost of job displacement. With a Canadian panel survey we compare the consumption growth of households that experienced a permanent layoff to a control group of households that experienced a temporary layoff with known recall date. Because the firms employing the latter group are providing insurance, these workers approximate a benchmark of full insurance against job loss shocks. We estimate that permanent layoffs experience an average consumption loss of between 4% and 10%. Older workers and workers with high job tenure have losses closer to the top of this range.