Azerbaijan after the Vilnius Summit: What Next?

Abstract

The Azerbaijani establishment is in a very difficult situation. With Armenia joining the Customs Union (CU), and Georgia signing an Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), Azerbaijan is trying to keep its neutrality as long as possible. However, with the further intensification of the struggle between the EU and CU in the former Soviet space, for Baku it will be difficult to maintain its balance and the country will need to make a choice. Having two neighbors (Turkey and Georgia) striving for EU membership, and two (Armenia, Russia) going for the CU, Baku is to some extent isolated. Each of the choices brings benefits and problems, while none of the options offer Baku and its establishment a win-win situation.