German Social Democracy: Hollowed Out But Still (Almost Always) in Government

Abstract

Between 1998 and 2024, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) was in government for twenty-three out of twenty-seven years - either as the senior partner in a coalition (from 1998 to 2005 with the Greens and from 2021 to 2024 with the Greens and liberals (FDP)) or as the junior partner in a coalition with the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) from 2005 to 2009 and from 2013 to 2021. The party's overall electoral performance during this period has been devastatingly poor, with its vote share declining from 40.9 per cent in 1998 to 16.4 per cent in 2025. This almost steady decline is due to its failure to devise a strategic response to neoliberalism. As a result, the SPD's former electoral coalition disintegrated—blue-collar voters turned to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), while centrist voters abandoned the SPD for the CDU/CSU or the Greens. In 2025, the SPD also lost many voters to the Left Party and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). The party's long-term track record of participating in coalition governments without delivering progressive reforms suggests that another coalition government with the CDU/CSU after the 2025 federal election is likely to undermine the SPD's political standing further.