The Decline of Western Influence in Africa: Three Consequences

Abstract

Some 140 years after the infamous Berlin Conference, a new and different scramble for Africa is underway. Non-Western external actors such as China, Russia, and many Middle Eastern states have taken an increasing interest in Africa, leading to a decline of Western influence on the continent. What will be the consequences? First, African governments already have a range of choices regarding their external partners. This increases their agency, which can foster more equal partnerships. Second, the effects of a changing geopolitical landscape and Africa’s realignment in a multipolar world will also depend on their quality of governance. If governments do not promote democracy and sound development, the effects will be problematic – not least for respective domestic populations themselves. Third, consequences will also materialise on the systemic level, and potentially include considerable risks of conflict when external actors support rival factions within African countries, as during the Cold War or presently in Sudan.