Coattailing for regime continuity? Unraveling Duterte's legacy in Marcos Jr.'s 2022 electoral victory

Abstract

The electoral victory of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been attributed to a range of factors such as misinformation, patronage, and populism. We argue that Marcos' electoral victory should not be treated as an isolated instantaneous event, but rather a result of a shift in the country's political narrative due to the legacy of his predecessor. The shift to illiberal populism is tied to the public's continued support for Duterte's flagship policies as well as in the proliferation of populist rhetoric on social media. Using a non-probability survey of 1500 Filipinos, we find that support for President Duterte and his policies as well as trust in social media are significantly correlated with votes for Marcos Jr. It appears like Marcos Jr.'s investment in a social media campaign has paid off not just in terms of votes received but also in strengthening his image as a populist leader.