Ethnolinguistic Groups of Moldova and their 2024 Election Choices

Abstract

This paper investigates the ethnolinguistic affiliations and positions regarding the EU of the electorate of the major candidates in the 2024 Moldovan presidential elections. To detect in which parts of the country the main candidates had strong support, I classified the Moldovan polling stations into clusters based on similarities in candidates' support, referendum outcomes, and turnout rates. Then, I compared the candidates' performances in each of the clusters. The electorate was then analyzed across two dimensions: the voters' linguistic affiliation and their pro- or anti-EU stance. The study maps out the positions of the major candidates' supporters. It shows the complex composition of the Renato Usatîi electorate, with pro-EU Russian speakers in some districts and EU-skeptical Romanian speakers in others. It also suggests that Ilan Şor held the most radical anti-EU position and garnered votes on this basis. A hypothetical third dimension - the protest vote - is discussed in the conclusion to explain the diversity of anti-EU and EU-skeptic votes, but because of data availability, this discussion is only speculative.