Learning the Right Lessons: How Ukraine Has Changed Drone Warfare

Abstract

Russia's war in Ukraine has undoubtedly become the single most important conflict for understanding how drone warfare may take shape in the future. This article zooms in on the fast-paced drone developments on the Ukrainian battlefield across platforms, functions, and operational domains. Most notably, repurposed hobbyist drones have demonstrated their tactical utility in high-intensity warfare by both providing a live-feed of the battlefield and becoming ammunition themselves. These developments have contributed to an improved cost-per-effect ratio of drone capabilities and an increasing relevance of the vertical dimension in land operations. Drones, however, are not a silver-bullet solution for achieving strategic victories. This article also highlights that the path to operational effectiveness is not as straightforward as the techno-optimists like to portray, examining the challenges related to the development, integration, and deployment of new uncrewed systems. Looking forward, research and development in artificial intelligence (AI) is promising major breakthroughs in autonomous drone operations, as well as command and control support. Finally, the Ukrainian battlefield shows that future warfare will most certainly involve multi-domain drone operations.