Do they have no other choice? The mediation effect of liberal party landscapes on electoral support for right-wing populists among conservatives

Abstract

The rise of right-wing populist actors has increased academic interest in the relationship between personal values and electoral support for right-wing populist parties. Studies have found a complex relationship between conservative values and right-wing populist voting; some studies have found positive associations, while others have found negative ones. This study aims to investigate the relationship between conservative values captured by higher-order value conservation in Schwartz’s theory of basic human values and voting for right-wing populist parties by examining the role of the liberal versus authoritarian composition of the party landscape as a moderating factor. Using data from the European Social Survey and the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, the study employs multilevel multinomial regression models to analyse this relationship. The results indicate that the likelihood of right-wing populist voting or not voting (as another possible alternative to voting for conservative parties) increases for individuals with a higher priority for conservative values in more liberal party landscapes, defined as the sum of all ideological positions of relevant political parties on economic and social policies. This study contributes to the literature by further unpacking the relationship between conservative personal values and voting behaviour in the context of populism and the context-dependence of personal values on voting.