Georgia's Withdrawal from the EU Accession Process: Reasons, Consequences, and EU Reactions

Abstract

In contrast to the manipulated parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 26, 2024, the subsequent announcement by the Georgian Dream leadership to suspend accession negotiations with the EU until the end of 2028 has sparked ongoing protests in Georgia. Three arguments are put forward: First, the often-cited figure of 80% EU support among Georgians glosses over a more complex (geo)economic situation Georgia finds itself in, which at least partly explains why protests remained limited immediately after the elections. Second, I argue that Georgian Dream went a step too far - even for its own supporters - when it suspended EU accession negotiations, a move which could potentially have far-reaching consequences for Georgia's future political development. Third, the EU's reaction was not unified and firm due to internal rifts within the EU. It therefore depends heavily on the mobilizing power of the protest movement to ensure that Georgia does not become a second Belarus.