Abkhazia's 2025 Presidential Elections: De Facto State Patron-Client Relations and Russian Interference

Abstract

On 15 February 2025, the Abkhazians went to the polls to elect a new president to succeed Aslan Bzhania, who had been forced to resign following a wave of popular protests. This election was particularly notable due to unprecedented interference by Abkhazia's patron, the Russian Federation. The relationship between Abkhazia and Russia has evolved over the years. While Abkhazia relies heavily on Russian backing for security and infrastructure, most Abkhazians oppose full integration with Russia. In particular, the question of whether Russian citizens should be allowed access to the Abkhazian real estate market has become a contentious issue that has sparked resistance. When Bzhania attempted to accommodate Russian interests in the real estate market in 2024, he faced a backlash and was ultimately forced to resign. The 2025 election featured two main candidates: Badra Gunba, who was backed by Moscow, and opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba. Gunba's victory raises several questions about Abkhazian sovereignty and the future of the country's political landscape. Gunba must balance the expectations of his patron against the concerns of a populace that has grown wary of losing its autonomy amid Russia's increasing integration efforts. Hence, the dynamics of this election exemplify the complexity of de facto state patron-client relationships.