Job tenure in Western Europe, 1993-2021: Decline or stability?

Abstract

The empirical literature is divided on whether job tenure has declined or remained stable in Europe in recent decades. We argue that three analytical decisions explain the lack of consensus: whether researchers focus on men or women, whether they control for changes in labour market composition and whether the period under study is marked by a recession or a boom. We show the influence of these three decisions by analysing change in job tenure for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK using two leading surveys: the European Labour Force Survey 1993-2021 and the European Working Conditions Survey 1995-2021. The results show that the share of workers remaining with the same employer for 10 years or more was stable at around 50%. Similarly, the average job tenure remained constant over time - at about 11 years - between 1993 and 2021. Trends in job tenure differ by gender. While the tenure of men remained stable or declined, the tenure of women increased. The stability in job tenure was due to the ageing of the workforce. For a given age, job tenure was shorter in the early 2020s than in the early 1990s.