Legislative Capture and Oligarchic Collusion: Two Pathways of Democratic Backsliding and Recovery in Moldova

Abstract

I examine two pathways of democratic backsliding in Moldova, and the ways in which the country was able to reverse the backsliding trends. The first episode (2001-2009) started with a political party gaining a supermajority in Parliament and setting up a semi-authoritarian system of governance. Pro-democracy protests and coercive attempts by the state to suppress them led to an institutional stalemate, culminating in snap elections that brought a victory for the political opposition. The second backsliding episode (2014-2019) was characterized by oligarchic collusion: major oligarchs funded and controlled the ruling parties while engaging in grand corruption and contributing to a gradual democratic decline. Recovery from this backsliding episode was enabled by cross-ethnic, trans-ideological protests against corruption, strategic institutional changes, and inter-oligarchic wars. The analysis underscores how contentious politics, electoral processes, and the empowerment of weakened political institutions can help generate democratic recovery.