Business in the Russian Economy After 2022: Resources, Incentives, Expectations

Abstract

This analysis examines changes in the attitudes of business elites over three years of war. It shows that most entrepreneurs quickly came to terms with the war, as the Kremlin was able to provide many of them with new sources of income due to a sharp increase in budget expenditures. Simultaneously, in a development somewhat reminiscent of the situation in the 1990s, the structural changes in the economy caused by sanctions and the departure of foreign companies created new opportunities for business. By the fall of 2024, however, these positive dynamics were eroding - and now Russian business faces the prospect of long-term economic stagnation, combined with a new wave of redistribution of property.