Differing Effects of the Fall of Assad and the Return of Trump on Russia and Iran

Abstract

The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 and the onset of the second Trump administration in the US in January 2025 have had differing effects on Russia and Iran. The collapse of the Assad regime meant the loss of a longstanding ally for both Moscow and Tehran. While hostile to Iran, though, the new Syrian government has been willing to cooperate with Moscow. Similarly, while the return of Donald Trump to the White House hardly bodes well for Iran, it has proved to be a boon for Russia - at least so far. But while the fall of Assad and return of Trump have resulted in more opportunities for Russia and risks for Iran, Moscow and Tehran can each be expected to work to preserve their ties to the other.