The End of Russian Hegemony: A New Transactional Order Arises in the South Caucasus

Abstract

Moscow's role as the regional hegemon in the South Caucasus ended with Russia's war on Ukraine. The region faces instability from old antagonisms and shifting power dynamics. Azerbaijan has become a key shaper of the regional security order. Other powers, including Türkiye, Iran, China, and the EU, are more active, but none can guarantee a stable order. Transactionalism and ongoing vulnerabilities define the disorder, while intraregional cooperation depends on Armenia and Azerbaijan overcoming hostilities.