The political transition in Syria: regional and international interests

Abstract

On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The transitional government under Ahmad al-Sharaa now faces enormous economic, social and political challenges. It has yet to establish control over the country as a whole; and jihadist groups such as the so-called Islamic State (IS) continue to pose a threat, as do (potential) insurgents linked to the former regime, among other groups. At the same time, the actions of various regional and international actors risk destabilising Syria or sabotaging the transition already under way. Regardless of whether that risk materialises, it is these external forces that are setting the bounds of the new rulers' room for manoeuvre. For its part, the interim government has started to lay off most members of the former regime’s Syrian Arab Army and disband militias. It has also struck a deal with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) about their integration into the new Syrian army and embarked on a political transition. Germany and its EU partners should support an inclusive transition process and help facilitate the comprehensive reconstruction of the country, not least by easing sanctions. Indeed, it is essential that geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria be de-escalated rather than exacerbated. (author's abstract)