From Global Governance to Nationalism: The Future of AI

Abstract

The 2025 Paris AI Summit has revealed fundamental disagreements over AI governance with many states prioritising AI sovereignty and market dominance over human-rights-based global governance. This has intensified geopolitical and economic rivalries between states and reduced regulatory guardrails against the potential misuse of AI for autocratic purposes by governments and corporations. The EU’s human-rights-centric regulations clash with the innovation-driven deregulation in AI governance promoted by the US. Meanwhile, economic powerhouses such as India, South Korea, and Brazil are establishing their own positions. Autocracies such as China, Russia, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, with their state-led model of AI governance, are integrating AI with military and surveillance capabilities. Geoeconomic rivalries are likely to result in a re-shuffling of AI supply chains and trade barriers between the US, China, the EU, and other AI powers, impeding innovation and creating monopolies. Such barriers make low-income countries in the Global South highly dependent on states that lead in AI development, further reinforcing global inequalities. Countries with permissive regulatory environments are likely to attract more business but at the cost of increased risk of AI misuse. As states and powerful technology-developing companies prioritise their narrow interests over broader ethical considerations and public safety, the space for civil society in AI governance is shrinking, which may exacerbate concerns over privacy, employment, and social justice and human rights.