What lies ahead for the German Government in the Middle East

Abstract

As geopolitical tensions and conflicts reshape the Middle East and North Africa region, Germany must balance diplomacy, development, and security. From post-conflict reconstruction and energy transitions to managing rising authoritarianism, Germany’s ability to lead as a stabilising force will depend on European Union cooperation, targeted economic engagement, and sustainable policy frameworks. In Syria, conditional cooperation with the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham-led administration will need to focus on human rights, minority protection, anti-corruption efforts, and limiting renewed Russian influence. To stabilise Lebanon, Germany must link financial aid to governance reforms, applying EU-level sanctions to curb Hezbollah's influence while fostering civil society to prevent sectarian tensions from escalating. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Germany will need to insist on the application of international humanitarian law to safeguard its reputation as a civilian power that is committed to multilateralism. Nearshoring, renewable energy expansion, and managing political risks will be key in the Maghreb, including around Morocco's succession, Western Sahara tensions, and rising authoritarianism in Tunisia. With Iran's nuclear ambitions and its regional-destabilisation strategies, Germany’s diplomatic leverage in a renewed JCPOA should include targeted sanctions relief and post-conflict contingency plans for potential military escalation. New avenues for German partnerships with Gulf countries exist regarding the energy transition, particularly on green hydrogen.