Risk and Resilience: Quantifying the Threat to Indian Ocean Supply Chains in 2025

Abstract

The Indian Ocean supply chain, a vital artery of global trade connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe, faces unprecedented challenges due to cascading disruptions in the Red Sea, a critical chokepoint linking the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. These disruptions stem from Houthi activities in Yemen, the resurgence of Somali piracy, and the broader instability tied to the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has reverberated across the region. As of March 2025, these factors have coalesced into a perfect storm, threatening the stability of maritime commerce, inflating shipping costs, and forcing companies to reassess their operational risk thresholds. This article analyzes these challenges through a narrative lens, weaving together recent events and quantitative data to assess the risks and determine when continued shipping through this corridor becomes untenable.