Concentration of Russian Wheat Exports to Egypt and Turkey: Evidence from the Ports of Novorossiysk and Rostov

Abstract

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has led to a significant tightening of export restrictions for wheat in the Black Sea region, which has impaired competition on international markets. As a result, market concentration on the Egyptian and Turkish wheat markets has increased. Disaggregated data on Russian wheat exports from the ports of Novorossiysk and Rostov are used to analyze trade concentration, market structure, fluctuations in export prices and volumes, and export restrictions. The aim is to draw conclusions about competition among Russian wheat exporters and to find evidence of oligopolistic structures. It is emphasized that Novorossiysk, as the largest port, plays a decisive role in wheat exports compared to other ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The concentration of Russian wheat exports in Novorossiysk could lead to distortions of competition on both Russia’s international and domestic markets.