Economic Cooperation and Russia's Geopolitical Strategy in the South Caucasus

Abstract

In the current geopolitical climate, an analysis of economic cooperation between Russia and the South Caucasus cannot be separated from geopolitics. Contrary to views that Russia is losing influence in the South Caucasus due to the Ukraine war, the authors argue that Russia is pursuing a long-term security and economic strategy that aims to extend Moscow's control over the region through hybrid warfare, leveraging the Soviet legacy, cultural ties, economic dependencies, and business networks. Russia's growing influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan, driven by security and economic interests, threatens Western control over the trade corridor from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Moscow's ultimate goal is to push the West out of the region, as none of the three countries have the resilience or political will to oppose Russia in the long term.