Russia's Wheat Exports: Recent Structural Changes and Implications

Abstract

Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia not only continued its growth in wheat exports, but also experienced increased market concentration. As large multinational exporters exited the grain export market, only a few exceptions remained. This increased concentration reduced competition in the domestic market, which can lower producers' prices and profitability. Against the backdrop of these structural changes, Russia’s grain exports to countries of geopolitical importance like China and Saudi Arabia are rising. This article provides an overview of these structural changes and assesses their potential implications for the domestic market and global food security.