Only the Bare Necessities: The (Tense) Relationship Between the Belarusian and Russian Non-systemic Oppositions Before and After the "Great Prisoner Swap" of August 2024

Abstract

Although the Belarusian and Russian non-systemic opposition movements continue to fight the personalist autocracies in their respective home countries from exile, no cooperation can be observed between the two national democracy movements - in contrast to the apparently "fraternal" autocrats Lukashenka and Putin. But why is this the case? This article argues that, in addition to the ideological discrepancies between the two sides, the absence of an institutional basis for such cooperation is a decisive factor. The article concludes by briefly outlining a possible way out of this problem.