God or good health? Evidence on belief in God in relation to public health during a pandemic

Abstract

Religion has played a role in facilitating the coexistence of many people, hence making complex societies possible. Since secularization, its role has apparently become less important, even though crises tend to push people towards religion. Did a belief in God play a role in the public's behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic? The literature suggests that during a crisis more and more people find comfort in religion. Using data about the share of believers and the evolution of the contagion in three different sets of countries, by means of a quantitative analysis that employs hybrid models, we find evidence of a positive relationship between the share of citizens that believe in God and the trend in COVID-19 infections. This suggests that believing in God does not help the coexistence of a large number of people in this setting, and provides lessons regarding ways to implement stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions in these countries that will achieve better results.