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Voting after watching: the strategic role of election polls


Gherghina, Sergiu; Chiru, Mihail


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Abstract The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first two competitors qualify for the second round, these elections display one unsolved dilemma. The difference registered in elections between the two challengers is twice as large as the average support in the pre-election polls (a comparable difference was never registered in post-communist Romania). Our quantitative analysis uses election results from the past two decades and aggregated poll data from 2009 and reveals that a large share of the Romanian electorate avoids wasting votes and casts them for candidates with real winning chances. This article argues that polls presented to the voters, by the media during the elections, made the difference. They were used as electoral strategies to trigger strategic voting and thus promote specific candidates. (author's abstract)
Thesaurusschlagwörter Romania; presidential election; reporting; election; prognosis; self-fulfilling prophecy; voting behavior; election research; media; influence; behavior; election result; electoral system
Klassifikation politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur; Meinungsforschung
Methode empirisch-quantitativ
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2012
Seitenangabe S. 210-221
Zeitschriftentitel European Review of Artistic Studies, 20 (2012) 2
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1062798711000548
ISSN 1062-7987
Status Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.