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Voting after watching: the strategic role of election polls
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first t... mehr
The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first two competitors qualify for the second round, these elections display one unsolved dilemma. The difference registered in elections between the two challengers is twice as large as the average support in the pre-election polls (a comparable difference was never registered in post-communist Romania). Our quantitative analysis uses election results from the past two decades and aggregated poll data from 2009 and reveals that a large share of the Romanian electorate avoids wasting votes and casts them for candidates with real winning chances. This article argues that polls presented to the voters, by the media during the elections, made the difference. They were used as electoral strategies to trigger strategic voting and thus promote specific candidates. (author's abstract)... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Wahlsystem; Medien; Wahlverhalten; Wahlergebnis; Präsidentschaftswahl; Rumänien; Wahl; Verhalten; Berichterstattung; Prognose; Einfluss; Self-fulfilling Prophecy; Wahlforschung
Klassifikation
Meinungsforschung
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Methode
empirisch-quantitativ
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2012
Seitenangabe
S. 210-221
Zeitschriftentitel
European Review of Artistic Studies, 20 (2012) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/S1062798711000548
ISSN
1062-7987
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.