Export to your Reference Manger

Please Copy & Paste



Bookmark and Share

Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?

[journal article]

Smith, Michael A.; Paton, David; Williams, Leighton Vaughan

fulltextDownloadDownload full text

(460 KByte)

Citation Suggestion

Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-290598

Further Details
Abstract In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we find that, in high liquidity betting markets, betting exchange odds have more predictive value than the corresponding bookmaker odds. To control for potential spillovers between the two markets, we repeat the analysis for cases where prices diverge significantly. Once again, exchange odds yield more valuable information concerning race outcomes than the bookmaker equivalents.
Classification Basic Research, General Concepts and History of Economics
Free Keywords betting exchanges; market efficiency; prediction
Document language English
Publication Year 2009
Page/Pages 539–549 p.
Journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 71 (2009) 2
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2009.03.016
Status Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)