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Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?

[Zeitschriftenartikel]

Smith, Michael A.
Paton, David
Williams, Leighton Vaughan

Abstract

In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we... mehr

In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we find that, in high liquidity betting markets, betting exchange odds have more predictive value than the corresponding bookmaker odds. To control for potential spillovers between the two markets, we repeat the analysis for cases where prices diverge significantly. Once again, exchange odds yield more valuable information concerning race outcomes than the bookmaker equivalents.... weniger

Klassifikation
Allgemeines, spezielle Theorien und "Schulen", Methoden, Entwicklung und Geschichte der Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Freie Schlagwörter
betting exchanges; market efficiency; prediction

Sprache Dokument
Englisch

Publikationsjahr
2009

Seitenangabe
539–549 S.

Zeitschriftentitel
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 71 (2009) 2

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2009.03.016

Status
Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)

Lizenz
PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)


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© 2007 - 2025 Social Science Open Access Repository (SSOAR).
Based on DSpace, Copyright (c) 2002-2022, DuraSpace. All rights reserved.