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Random matrix ensembles of time-lagged correlation matrices : derivation of eigenvalue spectra and analysis of financial time-series

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Thurner, Stefan; Biely, Christoly

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Abstract We derive the exact form of the eigenvalue spectra of correlation matrices derived from a set of time-shifted, finite Brownian random walks (time-series). These matrices can be seen as real, asymmetric random matrices where the time-shift superimposes some structure. We demonstrate that for large matrices the associated eigenvalue spectrum is circular symmetric in the complex plane. This fact allows us to exactly compute the eigenvalue density via an inverse Abel-transform of the density of the {\it symmetrized} problem. We demonstrate the validity of this approach numerically. Theoretical findings are next compared with eigenvalue densities obtained from actual high frequency (5 min) data of the S\&P500 and discuss the observed deviations. We identify various non-trivial, non-random patterns and find asymmetric dependencies associated with eigenvalues departing strongly from the Gaussian prediction in the imaginary part. For the same time-series, with the market contribution removed, we observe strong clustering of stocks, into causal sectors. We finally comment on the stability of the observed patterns.
Classification Basic Research, General Concepts and History of Economics; Economic Statistics, Econometrics, Business Informatics
Method theory application
Free Keywords Stochastic analysis; Adaptive behaviour; Agent based modelling; Asset pricing; Complexity in economics; Financial time series
Document language English
Publication Year 2008
Page/Pages p. 705-722
Journal Quantitative Finance, 8 (2008) 7
Status Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)