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Wahlbörsen als interdisziplinäres Instrument der Sozialforschung: Erfahrungen aus Wahlen in Österreich

Political stock markets as an interdisciplinary instrument of social research: experiences from Austrian elections
[journal article]

Filzmaier, Peter
Beyrl, Maria
Hauser, Florian
Huber, Jürgen

Abstract

'Wahlbörsen sind ein Instrument der Meinungsforschung, um Wahlergebnisse vorherzusagen, leisten aber aufgrund der ihnen zuteil werdenden öffentlichen Aufmerksamkeit auch Funktionen der politischen Bildungsarbeit. Struktur und Methodik von Wahlbörsen, aber auch ihre Möglichkeiten und Grenzen werden a... view more

'Wahlbörsen sind ein Instrument der Meinungsforschung, um Wahlergebnisse vorherzusagen, leisten aber aufgrund der ihnen zuteil werdenden öffentlichen Aufmerksamkeit auch Funktionen der politischen Bildungsarbeit. Struktur und Methodik von Wahlbörsen, aber auch ihre Möglichkeiten und Grenzen werden ausführlich dargestellt. Detailanalysen beschäftigen sich insbesondere mit dem Kursverlauf und der Dateninterpretation einer von den Autorinnen betreuten Wahlbörse vor der österreichischen Nationalratswahl 2002 sowie mit neuen Erkenntnissen über Handelsentscheidungen und das politische Informationsverhalten der Händlerinnen. Die Schlussfolgerung ist, dass Wahlbörsen in Zukunft regelmäßig stattfinden werden, aber mit steigender Öffentlichkeit vermehrt Konflikte zwischen wissenschaftlichen Interessen und den Anliegen von medialen Veranstaltern entstehen, die den spielerischen Charakter in den Mittelpunkt stellen. Dementsprechend werden konkrete Empfehlungen für die zukünftige Gestaltung von Wahlbörsen gegeben.' (Autorenreferat)... view less


'Political Stock Markets (PSMs) are an instrument of opinion research to predict the outcome of elections and other uncertain events. Due to the high degree of public awareness they can further be considered a means of civic education. In this article the structure and methodology of PSMs, as well a... view more

'Political Stock Markets (PSMs) are an instrument of opinion research to predict the outcome of elections and other uncertain events. Due to the high degree of public awareness they can further be considered a means of civic education. In this article the structure and methodology of PSMs, as well as their strengths and weaknesses, are explored in depth. Detailed analyses are done on the chart and trading data of a recent PSM of the Austrian parliamentary election in 2002, which was supervised by the authors. We present new insights on trading decisions and political information behaviour of traders. Our conclusion is that PSMs will be conducted regularly in the future, but with increasing publicity the conflicts between the interests of involved scientists and hosting media, who tend to stress the entertainment character of PSMs, could increase. Therefore, we include a number of precise suggestions to possibly improve the design of future PSMs.' (author's abstract)|... view less

Keywords
political education; Austria; election; manipulation; National Council; opinion research; information-seeking behavior; instruments; election research; survey research; data capture

Classification
Public Opinion Research
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods

Method
empirical; development of methods; quantitative empirical; basic research

Document language
German

Publication Year
2003

Page/Pages
p. 387-410

Journal
SWS-Rundschau, 43 (2003) 3

Status
Published Version; reviewed

Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications


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© 2007 - 2025 Social Science Open Access Repository (SSOAR).
Based on DSpace, Copyright (c) 2002-2022, DuraSpace. All rights reserved.