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Predicting irregular migration: high hopes, meagre results
Die Prognose ungeregelter Wanderungen: große Erwartungen, begrenzter Nutzen
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in ... view more
German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under development for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU’s reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Federal Republic of Germany; EU; migration policy; migration research; policy on refugees; international migration; asylum policy; right of asylum; immigration; prognosis
Classification
Migration, Sociology of Migration
Free Keywords
Kosten-Nutzen-Relation; Nutzwertanalyse
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
36 p.
Series
SWP Research Paper, 11/2023
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2023RP11
ISSN
1863-1053
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications