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Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey
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Corporate Editor
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract
Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the... view more
Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the economic downturn and rifts in his ruling party, this will be the first election in which Erdoğan is not the clear favourite. Six opposition parties of different ideological origins have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate to stand against Erdoğan and to offer a common platform for restoring parliamentary democracy. Although the opposition alliance has reasonable chances of defeating Erdoğan's ruling bloc, their victory would not guarantee a smooth process of transition to parliamentary democracy. If the opposition can defeat Erdoğan, the new government would need to undertake the arduous tasks of establishing a meritocratic bureaucracy, restructuring Turkey's diplomatic course and economic policy, and switching back to parliamentary rule. Due to the opposition alliance's diverse composition, accomplishing these goals may be as difficult as winning the elections.... view less
Keywords
Turkey; parliamentary election; presidential election; head of state; opposition; election result; scenario; change of government; candidacy; formation of a government; foreign policy; migration policy; reform policy
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip; Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Türkiye); Wahlbündnis; Oppositionspartei; Oppositionsführer; Entwicklungsperspektive und -tendenz; Wahlfälschungen/Wahlbetrug; Präsidiales Regierungssystem; Wirtschaftskrise; Außenpolitische Neuorientierung; Flüchtlinge; Syrer; Syrien; Politische Reformen; Öffentlicher Dienst; EU-/EG-Länder; Europäische Union; Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Türkiye); Halkların Demokratik Partisi (Türkiye)
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
8 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 55/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022C55
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications